During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Not a bad streak. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Contributors wanted We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Watauga has gone for. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. But both are worth watching. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. There are 391 such counties. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Hillary Clinton (578) This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Go on, look them up! How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. First, what are bellwether counties? TIP: David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Enter Donald Trump. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. 2016 Election (1135) Seriously. It also backed Gov. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! 7. 3. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Until this year. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. 10. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Trump won the other 18 counties. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. 8. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Here's why. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). 9. It almost became religious.". Sumter County, . Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". (The highest value being again 66.1%). The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Their concerns are real. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Just how big is it? 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. 3. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". 4. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Outstanding. Read about our approach to external linking. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Telegram Telegram The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Ron Elving . In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Dont simply gloss over this. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president.

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